this is straight from an energy trader in NZ, and is the real cost of electricity ahead after a carbon tax comes in:
xxxxxxxxx "In the NZETS electricity retailers appear to have simply added the cost of carbon at the NZETS cap of $25NZD to their prices. This despite an NZU trading at much lower levels. Traders argue that holding costs must be added to the cost of a NZU. There has been no regulatory response that I know of. Some design elements of the AUETS and carbon tax need to address some of the weaknesses of the NZETS that have emerged from its operation over the last year."
In other words, the energy sellers have NOT factored any market fluctuation into prices but instead simply directly stuck the carbon tax on to the price. Using THAT real world data, Treasury's science fiction about prices is shown to be a total fantasy.
Electricity will skyrocket beyond most people's wildest nightmares. Forget 40-50% increases in prices- this will put it at a 300-400% increase, meaning in real terms rolling blackouts, brownouts, energy load scams by unscrupulous sellers, huge increases in energy thefts, and of course the vulnerable literally dying in high summer and deep winter.
Nice work, Gillard.